Maritime Data News
Measuring Global Seabourne Trade
New research from Lloyd's MIU unveiled at the IMSF conference in New Orleans in May 2009 for the first time attempts to provide a systematic bottom up calculation of global seaborne trade measured in terms of both volume (metric tonnes) and value (US $). According to the figures released at the meeting, global seaborne trade accounts for 75 per cent of global merchandise trade by volume compared with 59 per cent when measured in US dollar value terms.
IMSF member Wally Mandryk Manager of Market Intelligence Services - Lloyds MIU commented that the results called into question the generally held view of seaborne trade accounting for 90 per cent of world trade by volume which is widely used by both official and industry bodies to support maritime planning and policy measures.
The impetus behind the study, Mandryk explained, was a lack of comprehensive data on global foreign trade broken down by transport mode and volume. This meant that maritime decision makers and analysts had become reliant for their assessments of seaborne transportation demand on a "mythical" 90 per cent trade ratio which is based on unknown provenance and methodology. Lloyd's MIU's own internal studies involving matching observed deployed shipping capacity with seaborne trade volumes reported from various sources highlighted the need for reassessment of some widely held assumptions.
The new figures are based on a year long analysis of UN Trade foreign data for 2006 covering over 1000 commodities at SITC 4 digit level, 250 countries and 20,000 country to country trade routes, supplemented by detailed industry sector research and benchmarking against Lloyd MIU's own detailed route specific shipping capacity databases.
Before processing trade into modal splits broken down by sector the authors had to reconcile inconsistencies in the official data particularly those involving discrepancies between reported import and export volumes as well as standardising the disparate units of volume reflected in the stats into a common unit of measurement of metric tonnes. The result was a database detailing world merchandise trade by volume and value into split into seaborne, overland, pipeline and air modes with seaborne trade additionally broken out for tanker, dry bulk, and general cargo and container sectors.
The study also challenged the general perception that intra EU trade accounted for nearly all of overland trade highlighting the significant volumes of overland trade between NAFTA countries, Intra Asian cross-border trades, particularly between Russia and China, and the significant volumes of overland trade between former Comecon countries and Europe.
Notwithstanding the reassessment of seaborne trade volumes the conclusion of the study reinforced the critical importance of maritime transport as a fundamental and indispensable pillar of world trade. With seaborne trade accounting for 7.5 billion tonnes in 2006 and the theoretical alternative mode of transport on most long haul routes being air freight which can offer less than a third of one per cent of global transportation capacity, there is simply no alternative to moving the majority of global trade by sea.
Author: Wally Mandryk | Email: Wally.Mandryk@lloydsmiu.com
Click here to link to IMSF presentation
Link to LL article (requires LL online subscription)